Leverage has not stopped the Chinese bond market is temporarily difficult to tak

In 2017, when China's bond market suffers from a bear market night, it is about to reach the dawn of dawn in 2018. The tolerance of policymakers on the decline of economic growth is on the rise. Monetary policies continue to be sound and neutral. Financial supervision and de-leveraging on the bond market will continue to be clear. Bond yields will temporarily slide away from highs and lows.

However, market participants said bond placement has risen as absolute yield levels have risen to historic highs. In the medium term, the economic cycle and the financial cycle will evolve. The effect of deleveraging on real economy financing in 2018 will further manifest itself. If the economy exceeds the expected downward trend, the drop in financing demand will drive liquidity improvement and the bond market may usher in a period of investment opportunities.

A major asset manager of investment management said that the past few rounds of bear market in the Chinese bond market were closer to the economic fundamentals. This time, it is more complicated: regulation in the territory is tighter and financial leverage is adjusted. Overseas, the United States Both interest rate increases and tax reform will put pressure on capital outflows, and these factors will gradually raise the debt cost of banks and non-bank financial institutions.

"So I think we can not just focus on the asset itself, measure the 4.0% yield of Treasury bonds is not top and configuration value, more attention should be paid whether there is a trend of external variables change, at least at this point can not see Of course, the process may be repeated, perhaps with a 20-30 bp rebound, but it's hard to say that it will open a new round of bull market, "he said.

Ping An Asset Management Co., Ltd. (601318.SS) (2318.HK), an asset management company, believes that the business cycle in 2018 may be slightly downwards. However, the structural adjustment will continue to proceed and the economy as a whole will show a "steady and advanced" pattern. The positive impact of the fundamentals on the bond market may start sometime in 2018, and the value of the bond market is on the rise, but economic resilience is still to be observed and short-term pressure on de-leveraging due to the strengthening of regulatory regimes is still under pressure. From an external point of view, the tax reform will raise US long-term interest rates. The number of U.S. interest rate hikes may exceed expectations, which will also have a conductive effect on domestic interest rates.